They’re likely to get it. Late last month in Tokyo, Sony took an important leap in this direction by introducing Librie, an e-book reader. The device, which costs $370 and is about the size of a paperback, holds the equivalent of dozens of books, which readers can download from the Web for $2.20 each. Although it’s available only in black and white, Librie has the most important characteristic of paper: it reflects natural light. That means it can be read on sunny days or viewed from any angle. You can even choose your own font size. Sony expects to sell 5,000 units a month. Is this finally the beginning of the end of paper?
The answer is closer to “yes” than you may think. The holdup so far has been user-unfriendly screens, but now e-paper no longer relies on back-lit displays. A reflective display is easy on the eyes, with twice the contrast of computer screens and up to six times the brightness. It uses power only when changing the page, so a battery can last 300 hours. Several firms are vying for leadership. The Philip’s display on Librie uses technology from Massachusetts-based E-Ink Corp. An electric charge moves either black or white capsules to the surface of the page in patterns that form images. Gyricon Media, a spin-off from Xerox, uses rotating balls with one black side and one white side for signs and billboards. Other companies are focusing on improvements in liquid-crystal displays. Philips’ electrowetting is still “a wild card,” says Peter Wierenga, head of display research.
The next challenge is to add color. One option for books would be a simple color filter, but that would block two thirds of the light. Guofu Zhou, who runs the E-ink project for Philips, thinks products with colored ink can be ready for the market within seven years. He’s now focusing on e-paper that can display 16 or more gradations of gray, which would come in handy in medical imaging or to display black-and-white photographs at home.
Labs around the world are also racing to design a robust yet flexible backing. The U.S. military is funding research into e-paper to produce real-time maps for battlefield use, which soldiers would store away in tubes or in clothing. Philips researchers are working on a technology for laminating E-ink on a plastic layer instead of glass, which would then roll into a pen-sized tube. A flexible product for mobile phones and digital cameras can be ready in three to five years, says Wierenga. “We’re on the path of attack to video posters.”
E-paper could save newspapers a bundle on printing and distribution. In 10 years 12 percent of newspapers could be published on e-paper, says Harald Ritter, technology chief for Ifra, the publisher’s group; eventually they’ll all follow suit, just as the recording industry dropped vinyl. “In 20 to 30 years we will see newspaper publishers abandon print for economic reasons,” says Roger Fidler, director of the Center for Cyber Information at Kent State University.
Digital newspapers may never get to full broadsheet or even tabloid size, say researchers, because e-paper would be too expensive and cumbersome. Instead, they expect something closer to A4 size–sold as a single sheet or as two sheets with a spine in the middle. Initially such an e-newspaper would merely receive data from a computer at home or wireless hot spot. (Future generations may include two-way communication.) European publishers are more likely to adopt the technology first. In Sweden last year, 14 newspapers joined a pilot study to design a prototype layout, and this fall they will expand their trials to include consumers. This summer a consortium of more than 20 universities, publishers and telecom companies will launch DigiNews, a demonstration system for digital newspaper production.
Even if e-paper technology fulfills its promise, though, the business model needs some thought. For instance, who will control the distribution of the devices, and therefore the connection to the customer: the electronics makers, the publishers or even giant retailers who want to replace their millions of catalogs? Price is another key point. Fidler expects we will see a $200 device in color by the end of the decade, but flexible e-paper will take longer and cost more. Advertisers are keenly watching, because real-time delivery would allow them to tailor their messages to the individual customer, submit an ad at the last minute and even slash a price during the day if sales are not going well. In the meantime, believers like Hayes and Feenstra will keep pushing to turn fantasy into reality.
