Musharraf’s core constituency, of course, is the Pakistani military. The conventional wisdom is that he’s firmly in control of his uniformed friends. But he’s reshuffled his military commanders three times in six months; the first, Oct. 7, was on the eve of the U.S. bombing campaign against Afghanistan. Conservative Army leaders cannot be happy about U.S. forces operating inside the country, especially in North Waziristan, a tribal area near the Afghan border. Another embarrassment was the arrest of Osama bin Laden’s lieutenant Abu Zubaydah and 50 other Qaeda activists in Faisalabad and Lahore on March 27. U.S. FBI and CIA agents were present at the bust, but Pakistan’s own Inter-Services Intelligence directorate was kept largely in the dark about the operation.
When Musharraf announced his referendum plans to his powerful corps commanders, many initially opposed the idea, suggesting he stick to the Constitution and let Parliament choose a president. “Do you want me to be left at the mercy of Benazir Bhutto, who is sure to win such a poll?” the general asked his commanders, according to a well-placed source; though former prime minister Bhutto is in exile, her People’s Party is the country’s strongest political group. That carried the argument, but in late March Musharraf sidelined some of the commanders who’d opposed his referendum.
What makes all this risky for him is that, in most cases, the reshuffled military leaders are still on duty in other posts. The only leading general forced to retire so far has been the former intelligence chief, Mahmoud Ahmed. “The next few months are going to be very crucial for Musharraf,” says Mushahid Hussain, a former Information minister with good military contacts. He says military commanders were uncomfortable at being forced to campaign in public with the president. “It has not gone down well among the top brass, who feel it was disgraceful,” says Hussain. Before long, Musharraf could find himself facing demands from opposition political parties to step down. It’s unlikely he’d accede to such demands, but they might well lead to popular unrest, which could move the military to act against him.
